Archive for July 16th, 2010
Friday Notes – Know When to Fold Them
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One issue many have in this business – including traders, analysts, advisory services, and market columnists – is the need to be right.
Which includes trying to rationalize when wrong.
Frankly, I could care less.
I’m wrong lots in this business, and to some extent, wrong on every sequence in terms of optimal management.
And this morning, my bias was as wrong as possible as noted in this morning’s Tank transcript (note the chat extends to a second page).
Lest we forget though, trading isn’t about being right or wrong. Rather, like poker, it’s how little you lose when you’re wrong, and how much you win when you’re right.
And I credit the Tank a bit today, who cautioned me about my early bias. We take a pre-market poll in terms of long, short, oscillating, coiled, or no bias … as we do from time to time during the day. And as noted in the transcript, we had “Christmas Tree” colors, which is very rare and usually a warning sign.
So I kept sizes light, got out of dodge the minute my premise busted, and adjusted to reality as noted in my actual trade plots which are superimposed in the corner of the 5 minute chart.
While I read the market well this week, I was wrong at times - including being major league wrong today
Yet the performance chart at the right – when updated later today – will show a strong Gain/Loss dollar ratio for the week.
Today, I felt I was holding pocket Tens at open (and actually profited doing so during the Europe session).
Then, the U.S. general session flop came A-K-5.
I think Kenny Rogers wrote a song about just that.








