Archive for August, 2010
Wednesday Notes – A Different Gear
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As I’ve often said, this business is about knowing when to press the accelerator and knowing when to back off.
And that’s certainly true whether one is talking about portions of a day, week, month, or career.
So as (1) the summer winds down, (2) I continue the slow physical recovery and healing process, and (3) as the result of two consecutive draw days where based on the chart action I’d normally clean up (no major damage, just clearly not at full mental strength), I’m essentially allowing myself to put the car in park over the remaining weeks of August.
#3 is fairly significant for me, as consecutive draws — no matter what the reason — are an extremely rare occurance (and I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve had three in my entire career), so it tells me that despite my best night’s sleep in two weeks, I still have a ways to go to get back to full physical and mental strength.
I’m sure many will remind me that I was hooked up to tubes and wires in the E.R. just four days ago, yet I’ll always defer to my actual performance as the ultimate coach and judge. Always.
And two rare draws during (1) extremely fertile and obvious intraday setups and (2) amidst one of my stronger periods of performance tells me that my head’s just not into it right now. A bit too early or late in this business makes all the difference.
Push it when you feel it, back off when you don’t.
It’s what worked for Tom Cruise (Kaffee) when he went after Jack Nicholson (Jessep) and got him to admit to the Code Red in A Few Good Men.
And it’s what I don’t feel right now.
Those who have seen the movie know that until the trial with Jessep, normally “plea-bargaining” Kaffee was unfamiliar with the courtroom surroundings … stating something to the effect of “So this is what the inside of a courtroom looks like” toward the end of the movie after winning the trial.
I share a similar feeling in terms of slowing down.
So this what the “P” stands for on the gearshift.
Monday Notes – Recovering
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Some random trading and life thoughts after a rather tumultuous weekend.
Health Update – If you’re interested, the technical term for what struck me over the weekend is “pleurisy”, which reflects an inflammation of the cavity surrounding the lungs.
It can be caused by a number of things, including in my case likely a viral infection which was an unexpected second stage of a bug I picked up a few weeks ago from which I thought I was fully recovered, and for which bed rest, sleep, and time are the only cures.
If you’ve ever had the condition, you’ll know what I mean when I say it felt like a truck was literally sitting on my chest … which prompted Friday night’s E.R. trip. And it’s no exaggeration to say that it’s the most pain I’ve ever experienced, as up until about 3 hours ago, every little breath or torso movement felt like my ribs were being torn apart.
So the weekend reflected a heavy doses of sleep, interrupted on occasion by watching the PGA Championship and catching up on several High Stakes Poker shows.
I suspect it will take most of this week to fully recover, and am planning events accordingly.
Tiger Woods - Boy, if there’s ever evidence of performance momentum (or lack thereof), it’s what’s happened to Tiger over the past year.
And while I imagine his swing is messed up as many say, it’s also further reinforcement of how critically important the mental part of the game is.
Specifically, his current struggle further solidifies my believe that actual performance begets further performance in the same (and either) direction. For while there’s something to be said for “fake it until you make it” in terms of fooling the mind into positive action to get the ball rolling, the snowball effect that real results can bring is simply huge.
A Staff of One - Soooo, what does one do when the market provides a gem of an opportunity like today’s opening barf, you’re clearly under the weather physically and mentally, and you have no trading staff other than yourself? One good reason to consider a partner.
Well, given the options of doing nothing, trading lightly, and trading normally, I chose the middle road of simply making a few no-brainer wholesale trades (upon the U.S. session open … NO Europe trading) on light size, before going back to lying prone for the rest of the day.
Ironically, it’s about the same as I’ve been doing for most of the month anyway, and today’s ES action maintained its August rhythm of a quick opening dogpile move before consolidating most of the rest of the day.
A stupid decision considering my state? I can see the comments now. Well, had there only been marginal opportunities, I definitely would have passed. Yet the opening gift was, well … a gift … and it really only required mental alertness for about ten minutes out of a 13-hour day (including the Europe session), which I felt I could sustain.
Plus, I kept my sizes low.
I’ll likely take a similar approach for the next few days. And if I don’t trade, I don’t trade.
Yet like many small business owners, sometimes you have to show up when not feeling particularly well if only to simply open the store before heading back home.
Fortunately in this business, the commute between my office sofa and the trading desk is only about eight feet.
The Weekend Trader – Health Scare; Monkeys & Trading
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Resting Comfortably – Well, I guess I wasn’t kidding about “shutting down” in last night’s video, as I found myself in the E.R. at two this morning dealing with severe chest pains.
Three hours of EKG, blood tests, and X-Rays later, the old ticker checked out fine, and the docs think that virus I’d picked up last week that’s been lingering a bit likely settled into my lung linings … which apparently can feel like someone hit you with a sledgehammer.
And while that was my feeling as well before heading to the hospital (it felt more chest than heart, else I would have called 911 in a heartbeat … no pun intended), I felt I needed to practice “risk management” in the truest sense of the word by heading to the E.R. and momentarily escaping to life’s equivalent of a “cash position”.
And kudos to all the doctors and nurses who showed me they don’t mess around with chest pain. For in less than five minutes from arriving, they had me completely wired and monitored. And yes, I’m typing this horizontally from my sofa on my wi-fi, so I’m following doc’s orders. It was also about twenty years ago where paramedics literally brought my father back from the other side when he had a true heart attack and had flatlined.
Monkeys & Trading – Back on the trading front, my thanks to blog onlooker Andrew R. who forwarded the attached video and synopsis to me. As he indicated to me in his email:
“… the video reflects a fascinating 20 minute TED talk by Laurie Santos on experiments which introduced monkeys to the concept of money and trading. It turns out monkeys are prone to the same irrational tendencies as humans when it comes to various things, including significantly, loss aversion. This means that the principle difficulty many have with trading lies in a psychological bias that is at least 35 million years old! No wonder it’s a struggle.”
And while the video is about twenty minutes long, I think you’ll find every minute well spent.
The only thing I’ll add is if you think about what all of the “monkeys” are doing in the market at any given time, it may help further reinforce how successful traders profit from them.
Friday Notes – Winding Down Thoughts
Posted by: | CommentsSome week ending thoughts on trading careers, current market rhythms, weekly income goals, and my feeble attempt at shutting down after the week’s work.
Thursday Notes – Zoned In
Posted by: | CommentsAs athletes will tell you, it’s a wonderful place.
If May 6th is trading hell, then the last several weeks of trading in the zone have been heaven.
It’s that time when trades roll off your fingertips and it seems like the market just hands you money … day after day.
You’re locked into every tick and pattern, while dancing cheek to cheek with the market.
It backs up, you move forward. You move backward, the market moves toward you … as if you’re a magnet.
You get tired, it gets tired.
And while you know it won’t last, you dance the dance as long as you can.
Frankly, it’s a bit eerie … with a feeling similar to the extended runs of ’02, ’03, ’05, and the mother of all zones, late 07 thru mid-09. Well now I guess I have to add the summer of ’10.
Whatever people think of the diary attribute of this blog, it simply “is what it is” … a 100% non-fictional account of one man’s ongoing trading journey meant to tear down the hidden curtains and rid this small corner of the industry of the smoke and mirrors.
And while I hate talking about personal zones as I prefer to emphasize the misses for all to see, I’d be flat out lying if I didn’t say I’m as locked in as I’ve ever been as was the case again today.
Can I improve in certain areas? Darn right.
Yet in this ongoing tell-all autobiography, the theme remains all about the good, the bad, and the ugly.
And lately, it’s been good. Very good.
If you’ve heard me speak over the last decade, you know that I consider this business a daily battle between the casino and the speculator. And while casinos occasionally take their hits, their win rate is so darn high, it’s why their business plan works.
“Tis why I’ll always prefer to teach people to be the casino.
Wednesday Notes – I’m NOT Leaving My Wingman
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We’ve all heard that classic line.
For after royally messing up once as the result of lack of confidence and conviction, Maverick “stayed with it” when it really counted.
Such is often the case when trading ES, which during the U.S. general session continues to be full of head fakes and general noise. As I mentioned the other day, trading ES during Europe hours continues to often provide better and more profitable opportunities, as was the case again overnight.
And such “noise” is often when I revert to “air traffic controller” mode, talking to myself in the form of chatting in the Tank when I just feel I need to stay objective regardless of any position which can easily skew one’s perspective.
I’m not always chatty in the Tank, nor am I always even there. Yet as traders, enacting Dr. Brett’s “Internal Observer” – whether via one’s inner voice or outward discussion – can help us remain attentive and objective, while reinforcing one’s market read confidence that years of experience validates.
As our Jellie NFL quarterback once said, playing not to get injured is the sure ticket to getting injured.
Monday Notes – If You Don’t Know Who The Sucker Is …
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Over the weekend, I had two conversations with incoming and prospective September Jellie traders, during which I asked each of them the same two questions I’ve asked almost every trader I’ve ever worked with.
One of the questions was “Do you ever think about the trader on the other side of your trade?”
Actually, it’s somewhat of a rhetorical question, as I pretty much know the answer almost always will be “no”. Or if they initially respond “yes”, it becomes clear after probing a bit further that they really mean “no” and were just trying not to look stupid.
For during the last ten years where I’ve worked with hundreds of traders — and had conversations with probably 5 times that — I can count on one hand the number of struggling traders who have really thought about anything other than their position. Or in poker terms, their own hand.
And such was the focus in the Tank this morning (transcript attached … legal size this time to fit everything in) as constantly thinking about “stuck traders” helped provide both patience and conviction during the snail’s pace climb off the early handle supports.
Is your hand important? Of course it is.
Yet like poker, it’s more important to know what the other guy is holding.
And one advantage (of dozens) that trading has over poker?
You don’t need pocket cams, as you KNOW what he or she is holding.
Why? Because you put him/her there to begin with!
The Weekend Trader – Summer Tidbits
Posted by: | CommentsSome thoughts and updates on this sizzling summer Sunday.
Clambake Update - I expect to make a decision by next weekend as to whether we’ll hold the 9/25 trader clambake, as the timing is tough for many, and there are many “maybes” which is making judging a preliminary catering headcount a bit of a challenge. One option is to scale it back a bit by doing more of a lower key barbecue as we did last year.
If we indeed choose to proceed, I’d still subsidize the majority of it including paying 100% for any of the live program Jellies, and 2/3 for other guests (so the non-Jellie attendee cost would be $10/head for lobster, chicken, steak, etc.)
I’ll keep you posted.
Trader & Poker Player Burnout - It was very intriguing this week watching the 2010 “invite-only” Tournament of Champions final table as commentators Lon McCarron and Norman Chad both shared burnout stories of practically every world-class pro at the table.
Huck Seed, Jennifer Harman, Barry Greenstein, Johnny Chan, Daniel Negraneu … the list went on and on detailing how each one had to struggle through extended periods (months, and in some cases years) where they lacked interest, desire, motivation, and focus. Yet in the end, many of the stories referenced what it took for each to find something to retrigger their passion, desire, and commitment for the game.
For some it was the boom of online poker. For others, it was learning a new game or involving charitable causes. Yet regardless of the “trigger”, and while some arguably will never be able to fully recapture their dominating years as players and trends change, they all were able to latch onto something to spark that internal flame of passion to some extent.
Those of us who have been through similar phases in our “poker cousin” career of trading can certainly relate.
I know I can, as I wrote about in spades in mid 2009 when hitting a wall after exceeding every trading objective and industry benchmark I’d ever set for myself after the 2007-09 runs. At that time, I chose revisiting my earlier teaching roots and a charitable cause as motivation.
Yet the search to maintain one’s passion … whether in life, romantic love, or the “love” of trading never ends.
As Rule #222 in my favorite “trading” book The Tao of Poker states,
“The truth is, it takes a lot of energy to stay on the cutting edge of anything (note just to get there, but to stay there), and this is true whether we’re talking about poker, athletic achievements, business, entertainment, art – anything. It can be draining to be on top, so eventually we fall back a little. We’re comfortable with letting somebody else take the lead for a while. It is sometimes helpful to ‘return to our roots’ in the sense of reaching back to this best, sharpest, self. ”
As I mentioned on Friday, sometimes it takes that step backward – or even sideways in the form of burnout (recall the Warren Buffett ‘plateau’ post from a few weeks ago) – to once again put the spring in one’s step. Such is also why it’s so incredibly important and necessary to push the accelerator during those prime periods during the year or in your career as we ”prepurchase” the time and freedom which we’ll all need down the road.
Good traders recognize this.
For a trading career – like life – is full of cycles of initial desire, passion, exponential growth, weariness, rest, rejuvenation, and then back to desire again.
Hmmm … that sounds just like a futures chart.
And my current equity curve.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.









