Archive for Tank Transcripts
On the heels of an interesting and ongoing discussion in the comments section of Sunday’s post (apologies to those longtime onlookers for rehashing old content once again but I thought the poster deserved a response & the entire chain is worth reading), this morning’s trading tank transcript (click on pic to access) provides continued evidence of the “strength through unity” concept as the individual strands of the Jellie trading team served to provide a solid & reinforced rope of multiple eyes.
The theme of the morning was of course the incredibly obvious “train wreck” of the NYSE TICK in gauging the early action and false market upticks.
And yes, that’s indeed Thomas the Tank Engine in the transcript to keep recent content on the lighter side!
It’s been a while since we last did this, so I thought it might be helpful to post our running dialogue from this morning’s Jellie Tank session which includes PivotPoint fund buy reference points and trade premises.
P.S. Previous tank transcripts can be found in the post category index list in the lower right margin.
1. Anticipating the market bias … which we’ll call “the pre-flop” hole cards;
2. Confirming the bias with more market info … the “flop”;
3. Understanding what the other guy/gal is holding … the “read”; and
4. Sensing the rhythm of the session … the “table”.
As noted in this morning’s Jellie tank transcript, all four phases of the game were in play today.
Click on the pic below to enlarge the chat, with key bias comments and sequences highlighted.
Yet in my view, it ultimately comes down to interpretation via judgment and “feel”.
So this morning’s tank transcript and trading remind us of:
(1) The importance of the “S” in last week’s “Sense-Trust-Act” post, as well as …
(2) The importance of raising and pressing your bets HARD when you … well, “feel” it.
For it’s never about how many pots you win … rather it’s how much you win when you’re right.
One of the themes throughout the last Jellie session, as well as since the latest bull leg began in early September, has been the market’s strong tendency to take out the last swing high once ES has proved itself to the upside during any given sequence.
It’s a pattern that EVERY ES trader should recognize else your head has been stuck in the sand (or a mine … and congrats to those rescued of course!) for the last many months.
It was over a year ago when one of the beta Jellies (that link is a good read btw in terms of market simplicity) coined the “STA” (Sense, Trust, Act) phrase to describe our job as traders.
Sense for interpreting the current day’s rhythm; Trust for banking on the high probability of the pattern; and Act for just taking the dang trade.
Such was life today as I visited the Tank today after trading alone over the past few weeks.
The signs were huge … including as noted in the transcript … NOT BEING ABLE TO FILL ON THE DANG BIDS!! (Result? Buy the Ask … HARD!)
And so as we continue with our Trading After Dark infrastructure planning, the trading itself continues, and this morning’s transcript will have to suffice in terms of recap.
The goal of a trader?
Like a good tennis player, anticipate where the ball’s likely to land on its return BEFORE the opponent hits it.
Or, like a poker or chess player, think 1-2 steps ahead of those floundering around on the retail/losing side of the trades … lest you join that “other” side.
Work like heck to find the bias and defined channel in play, and then trade it with conviction.
And when no less than NINE signals all line up as they did for the attached sequence this afternoon, well, if you don’t take that trade, then – and I’ll be frank as always – this business just isn’t for you.
Is any trade guaranteed to work? Of course not … thus the premise based 3LB stop in the notes.
Yet when you’re approaching the net anticipating a soft return and your opponent obliges with the gentlest of lobs, well, you go for the kill.
Our professional tennis player from the beta Jellie team would be proud.
As athletes will tell you, it’s a wonderful place.
If May 6th is trading hell, then the last several weeks of trading in the zone have been heaven.
It’s that time when trades roll off your fingertips and it seems like the market just hands you money … day after day.
You’re locked into every tick and pattern, while dancing cheek to cheek with the market.
It backs up, you move forward. You move backward, the market moves toward you … as if you’re a magnet.
You get tired, it gets tired.
And while you know it won’t last, you dance the dance as long as you can.
Frankly, it’s a bit eerie … with a feeling similar to the extended runs of ’02, ’03, ’05, and the mother of all zones, late 07 thru mid-09. Well now I guess I have to add the summer of ’10.
Whatever people think of the diary attribute of this blog, it simply “is what it is” … a 100% non-fictional account of one man’s ongoing trading journey meant to tear down the hidden curtains and rid this small corner of the industry of the smoke and mirrors.
And while I hate talking about personal zones as I prefer to emphasize the misses for all to see, I’d be flat out lying if I didn’t say I’m as locked in as I’ve ever been as was the case again today.
Can I improve in certain areas? Darn right.
Yet in this ongoing tell-all autobiography, the theme remains all about the good, the bad, and the ugly.
And lately, it’s been good. Very good.
If you’ve heard me speak over the last decade, you know that I consider this business a daily battle between the casino and the speculator. And while casinos occasionally take their hits, their win rate is so darn high, it’s why their business plan works.
“Tis why I’ll always prefer to teach people to be the casino.
Such is often the case when trading ES, which during the U.S. general session continues to be full of head fakes and general noise. As I mentioned the other day, trading ES during Europe hours continues to often provide better and more profitable opportunities, as was the case again overnight.
And such “noise” is often when I revert to “air traffic controller” mode, talking to myself in the form of chatting in the Tank when I just feel I need to stay objective regardless of any position which can easily skew one’s perspective.
I’m not always chatty in the Tank, nor am I always even there. Yet as traders, enacting Dr. Brett’s “Internal Observer” – whether via one’s inner voice or outward discussion – can help us remain attentive and objective, while reinforcing one’s market read confidence that years of experience validates.
As our Jellie NFL quarterback once said, playing not to get injured is the sure ticket to getting injured.