Over the weekend, I had two conversations with incoming and prospective September Jellie traders, during which I asked each of them the same two questions I’ve asked almost every trader I’ve ever worked with.

One of the questions was “Do you ever think about the trader on the other side of your trade?”

Actually, it’s somewhat of a rhetorical question, as I pretty much know the answer almost always will be “no”.  Or if they initially respond “yes”, it becomes clear after probing a bit further that they really mean “no” and were just trying not to look stupid.

For during the last ten years where I’ve worked with hundreds of traders — and had conversations with probably 5 times that — I can count on one hand the number of struggling traders who have really thought about anything other than their position.  Or in poker terms, their own hand.

And such was the focus in the Tank this morning (transcript attached … legal size this time to fit everything in) as constantly thinking about “stuck traders” helped provide both patience and conviction during the snail’s pace climb off the early handle supports.

Is your hand important?  Of course it is.

Yet like poker, it’s more important to know what the other guy is holding. 

And one advantage (of dozens) that trading has over poker?

You don’t need pocket cams, as you KNOW what he or she is holding.

Why?  Because you put him/her there to begin with!

OK, the market was up a zillion points today.

Which means all of our uneducated trader friends will undoubtedly say to us, “you must have made a ton of money today”.

And while investors and multi-day swing traders have undoubtedly done well with the bullish daily pattern that took root late last week (and yes, I did point out the pattern to my new firm), flat-at-open/flat-at-close liquidity providing traders have had a bit more of a challenge in terms of finding low-risk wholesale entries.

Especially for those of use who prefer being in cash during major news announcements … which of course launched both Friday & today’s best early moves.

Yet such is life as the market continues to alternate between rewarding both short-term and longer-term market participants.

In terms of intraday action, sometimes a point is as good as five … as sizes are adjusted accordingly.  And such was the case in the Tank today as we nibbled and nibbled our way to at least some earnings with the clear POLR and IIAGD themes helping on mini-extensions both in the morning and afternoon sessions.

And as noted in the attached Tank transcript, there wasn’t much talk in the tank today.

Yet like a picture, sometimes it just takes just two words – POLR and IIAGD in today’s case – to mean that of a thousand.

During last year’s Boston Bamboo Trader picnic in my backyard, one of my students from the early 2000′s told me he still hears my voice echoing in his brain during certain market patterns.

And while I’m not sure that’s a good thing (!), I appreciated the comment and understood what he meant since I tend to be a bit of a drill sergeant in terms of getting traders to learn how to read the tape.  As I’ve told the incoming September Jellies, they’re going to be soooooo sick of my voice by the end of the 4 weeks!

Such was the focus of this morning’s transcript.

And in terms of responding to a few emails asking why I’ve been able to anticipate irrelevant wiggles or probes in many of the recent transcripts, it’s called trading a single market, and living, breathing, and sleeping it minute by minute, hour by hour, and day by day.

Anything less and you’re apt to be dancing with the wrong partner … and with two left feet.

Well, I wanted the short. 

Instead, for the first time in years, my trading workstation froze just before the U.S. session opened.  Note the 30 minute space between transcript posts … almost unheard of if I’m there!

Fortunately, I have a second charting platform always running parallel on my backup PC -the one with the Jellie chat – so I could at least follow the early flow before getting everything running just in time to catch the first MATD oscillation on the long side.  Because if I missed that one, it could be a day without income.

From that point, it was trying to keep everyone’s conviction on the early MATD long in tact despite some irrelevant wiggles (again, see transcript), and keep everyone’s head cool … and in turn, mine which is why I often babble … call it Dr. Brett’s Internal Observer.

And the Jellies usually know my not-so-subtle hints.  For example, I rarely use caps or make lunch bets (I’m a thrifty New England Yankee!).  So when I do, it’s my way of telling them – and again reminding myself - that the probability is pretty damn high.

Call it air traffic control during light turbulence.

No one ever said this biz would be easy.

Yet having (1) a backup plan and (2) conviction during battle is the only way to win the longer term war.

One issue many have in this business – including traders, analysts, advisory services, and market columnists – is the need to be right.

Which includes trying to rationalize when wrong.

Frankly, I could care less.

I’m wrong lots in this business, and to some extent, wrong on every sequence in terms of optimal management.

And this morning, my bias was as wrong as possible as noted in this morning’s Tank transcript (note the chat extends to a second page).

Lest we forget though, trading isn’t about being right or wrong.  Rather, like poker, it’s how little you lose when you’re wrong, and how much you win when you’re right.

And I credit the Tank a bit today, who cautioned me about my early bias.  We take a pre-market poll in terms of long, short, oscillating, coiled, or no bias … as we do from time to time during the day.  And as noted in the transcript, we had “Christmas Tree” colors, which is very rare and usually a warning sign.

So I kept sizes light, got out of dodge the minute my premise busted, and adjusted to reality as noted in my actual trade plots which are superimposed in the corner of the 5 minute chart.

While I read the market well this week, I was wrong at times - including being major league wrong today 

Yet the performance chart at the right – when updated later today – will show a strong Gain/Loss dollar ratio for the week.

Today, I felt I was holding pocket Tens at open (and actually profited doing so during the Europe session). 

Then, the U.S. general session flop came A-K-5.

I think Kenny Rogers wrote a song about just that.

The PJO (Prime Jellie Opportunity).

Corny?  You bet.  But I’ll take corny profits for a hundred Alex as this morning reinforced the notion that it’s all about stalking those trades when everything lines up.

In the Tank, we use “bullets” (*****) or the term PJO as shorthand.  For as any bona fide trader knows, it’s NOT just about the setup.  It’s how hard you push you chips on any given sequence. 

btw, note my response to a post in the Networking Forum re: trading later in the day. 

And that’s the part of trading few ever want to address, primarily because they’re chartists instead of traders.

For it’s “safe” not discussing sizes.  After all, they don’t all work out.

Yet it’s also “safe” never getting out of bed in the morning.

While I won’t cut and paste every Tank transcript (a bit of work!), in the spirit of “We Don’t Nail Every Sequence”, I thought today’s morning transcript shows a good overview of some early struggling with the market pace (pace always being more important to many of us than any technical pattern) before nailing the midday push. 

And it only takes one!

The yellow highlighting also reinfoces the notion that trading - like Poker – is ALWAYS about the other guy’s hand … and not yours.  Those that think about patterns and their own hand (the majority of traders) will continue to donate to the few who have figured that out.

Many of you may recall one of the reasons I decided on the “Jellie” term – for both my educational company and the participating traders – was because real jellyfish have to float and eat where the current takes them.  Other than that, they’re pretty directionless.

And while some may find the term simply “cute” (or I’m sure some even find it a bit irritating!), such a “powerless” attribute is one of the main reasons I chose the term, as well as reflecting one of the differences – among many – between what we were trying to accomplish and our historical “Turtle” cousins, who were typically more trend driven.

In other words, we try to adapt to what the market is doing at any given moment … and thus try not to get locked into any rigid pattern.  And such a strategy is paramount if a trader’s plan is to grind out profits more times than not at a high %.

And such was certainly the case today as we had to adapt on the fly to the anticipated intraday breakout occurring at 4:15am – vs. during the U.S. regular session - especially for those not trading in the wee hours and thus unable to take the optimal breakout entry.  And yes, I was up and trading by 5am ET.

Again, I’ll let the Tank transcript and the team take it from here.