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I will not allow yesterday's success to lull me into today's complacency, for this is the greatest foundation of failure. -- Og Mandino

Archive for Trader Training

Dec
17

The Weekend Trader – Is it Time?

Posted by: Don Miller | Comments (9)

Some random thoughts as I’ve essentially closed up trading shop for 2010.

2,000,000 Contracts - In the relatively meaningless statistic category department, this eye-popping figure reflects the number of contracts I’ve traded since taking my last significant break four years ago.

Two million. 
Over it actually as I passed the mark this week.
 
In terms of volume ranking, the years rank 2008-1st (duh!), 2007-2nd, 2009-3rd, and 2010-4th.  I’m told that 2008 ranked among MF Global’s top non-institutional clients … again fairly meaningless, although they’re the largest clearing firm in the world!

At this end, two thoughts come to mind: First, that’s a lot of muscle memory.

Yet second, all muscles need a break, and it may be time for a brief sabbatical as 2010 will also rank 4th in terms of profitability.

I made such a move in 2006, backing away from the markets a bit to turn my attention to non-market efforts.  During such time, many will recall that I went “off the industry grid” completely … and remained out of the public eye until 2008.
 
Looking back at 2006, it was the best decision I’ve ever made as a trader, and provided the renewed energy and focus when I returned to go on the sustained and at-times ridiculous multi-year run, much of which has been fully chronicled in this diary.
 
As I’ve often said, market profits do one thing and one thing only: They buy time.
 
And good fortune has blessed me with, well a ton of time compiled over the last four years.
 
Livermore unfortunately ran out of it … all of it, figuratively and literally.
 
I don’t plan to.

Christmas Giving – I’ll be giving 25% of all proceeds from all Jellie Webinars issued between now and the end of the year to the GrowUganda.org effort.

Check out a recap of part of their recent mission trip … inspirational!

For those new to this site, the material reflects my most comprehensive (and likely final) “packaged” trading educational material ever produced, and chronicles the eight two-hour evening sessions of the beta 2009 Jellie team as we recapped highlights of each trading week along with formal lecture.  You can view a complete syllabus of the covered material here.

Life Choices - On a related topic, Last week, I had a few phone and email exchanges with a trader who had literally lost hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to “learn” trading by essentially paying market tuition, yet refusing to invest one penny in education.

While I won’t recap the entire conversation, here are some relevant excerpts from my response:

I would simply encourage that if you’re TRULY serious about this as a REAL BUSINESS and profession to pursue formal training as anyone pursuing the skill-based careers of physician, pilot, athlete, or similar profession would.
 
From my perspective – and taking my own educational efforts completely out of the discussion for the moment – it seems that you’re still trying this “on your own” via experimentation without investing in any quality education, while willing to pay the market far greater sums in continued losses … which is like a doctor literally killing patients in an attempt to “learn” the business.  I know that may sound harsh, but it’s the honest perception (and you’re not alone), and I would simply ask you to step back and try to look at your situation objectively. 
 
Psychologically, there are many good quality resources out there from Steenbarger, Douglas, Dayne, Raschke, and my stuff … and there are good prop firm environments that can also provide capital, discipline, etc … yet please understand that ALL involve at least some cost.  Traders MUST plan, budget for, and invest in education — both initially and ongoing — and as is the case in any business, past expenses or losses are simply “sunk costs” in that they’re irrelevant with respect to future decision making.  A good benchmark for traders is to budget about one year’s worth of college expense for education and tuition.  Personally, I budget $5K a year for continuing education.
 
It’s in this light that I’d suggest assuming that Monday will be your first day of your “trading” business, and ask you to think about how you should go about structuring it from an infrastructure, educational, and strategic perspective.  For taking a comprehensive and holistic view of building a real business stands a far better chance of trying to both stop the bleeding AND heal the patient via a band-aid.
 
Absent a change in comprehensive business approach, I’d suggest any such prospective trader change their pursuits.
 
Harsh perhaps, but I mean this with all due respect and believe they’re words that must be heard.
 
All my best.
 
As many know, I don’t have many regrets over my trading career.  I’m simply not a “regret” guy … you live, learn, and move on.

Yet I will say that I regret some of the “trial and error” portions of the early days (and even some of the latter) that literally cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars in “market tuition”.

Frankly, I would have paid $50K for a solid college-type education, as the net savings over time would have been huge.

Yes, we all have to pay some, experience will ultimately be a solid teacher, and we all ultimately have to find our way.

And yes, it’s fun building our own custom car.

Yet we shouldn’t waste time, money, or energy building the tires or engine from scratch … over and over and over again.  For such work has long been done by others who preceded us … and often at their expense.

Plus, getting run over by our own vehicle – as well as our shortsightedness – simply adds insult to injury.

Have a peaceful and pleasant weekend.

Oct
01

Friday Notes – Look to the Moon

Posted by: Don Miller | Comments (2)
For 19 days, I thought I was the teacher.

Yet let it be said the the most sage words spoken over the course of the last four weeks came in the final few minutes of the 19th day.

Not from me, but rather from a wise participant who quoted the following Eastern Proverb:

“All instruction is but a finger pointing to the moon; and those whose gaze is fixed upon the pointer will never see beyond.”
 
For it’s never about the finger … and it’s especially not about the person pointing the finger.

This blog, the former blog, and the last decade of developing simulations, doing columns, speaking, and providing formal trader education all have one thing in common.

Sage onlookers have figured it out, while some still struggle as they continue to stare at the finger.

None of this is about me.

All of it is about the moon.

Your moon.

# # #

Friends, tonight marks a very emotional evening for me as I learned right after the market closed that a close friend of mine who was a personal life and spiritual mentor – largely by his life example – died suddenly.

He’d probably tell you he wasn’t a great leader or mentor.

In fact, he likely didn’t ever realize he was being a mentor to me.

Yet his life’s actions could best be described as … well, pointing to the moon.

At this end, the heart will admittedly be heavy over the next few days.

I will miss you Dick Williams.

Until we meet on the moon.

Categories : Trader Training
Comments (2)

Tonight’s rather emphatic video gets to the crux of why we created such an intensive and painstaking twenty-day trader training effort.

As I state in the video, seeing the culmination of one trader’s metamorphosis as evidenced by this afternoon’s trading sequence is priceless.

For those unable to participate, I try my best to share the insights of his evolution, including describing what true futures trading is all about, while also summarizing today’s trading action including the two-stage PMI data release and intraday reversal.

Comments (8)

On Sunday, 60 Minutes ran an extraordinary piece on Super Bowl champion Drew Brees.

Toward the end of the segment, the following exchange took place between Steve Kroft and Brees:

We asked Brees if he would give us a demonstration of his passing accuracy for our cameras. And he accepted the offer.

The challenge was to see how many times he could hit the eight-inch goal post crossbar which is ten feet off the ground from a distance of 30 yards.

On this day, Brees wasn’t perfect – he hit the crossbar a number of times and his misses weren’t very far off. But he failed to live up to his own expectations and he wasn’t happy about it.

“Low. Not my day,” Brees said. “Nah. That was terrible. You got me on a bad day.”

“I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it,” Kroft said.

“Yeah, Brees said. After a long pause, he added, “I will.”

Last night, we had a very similar exchange during our final evening Jellie training session together when I explained that I was beyond upset that I’d gotten into one particular sequence much later than I should have given a momentary distraction, which ended up being very costly.

Not costly in terms of lost capital .. rather it was costly in the context of a missed opportunity which required I enter the trade later than I would have preferred, giving up 2 points in the process.

And while some in the room told me to take it easy on myself, I vehemently disagreed, stating that it was completely unacceptable.

I went on to say that I expected to lose quite a bit of sleep over it … which I did as I played the sequence over and over again in my mind.

Fast foward to today where one of the Jellies took exception to another comment that I was planning to do everything possible to avoid “missing out” once again.

“Isn’t ‘missing out’ a bad motivator?” he asked.

To some, perhaps.

Yet, you see … I know myself.

More importanly, I also know my enemies … of which there are only two: complacency and satisfaction.

For these two foes reflect the only barriers that will ever cap my income.

So I have to find ways to make myself constantly uncomfortable … especially during sick streaks such as the one I find myself dealing with right now.

The common rule of thumb is that fear, anger, revenge, and extreme disatisfaction with one’s performance are counter-productive.  Not to mention the self-cursing.

Yet I’ve never marched to the “common” beat … nor do I plan to.

For me, they’re all powerful motivators.

In terms of yesterday’s trade, I essentially missed hitting the crossbar with one of my passes.  Forget the fact that most hit the bar … that one miss was unacceptable.

And in terms of today’s trade, I simply wasn’t going to let it happen again.

Three hours of sleep and 11 full hours of trading later, the result was a personal record 27 for 30 (sequences) day, including two with identical setups to the one I’d suboptimized on Monday, and five long exits within two ticks of oscillating highs including the final late-day exit at 1145.75.

The record will show that over the past many weeks, I’ve been trading at an even stronger consistency clip than the mega-zones in 2001, 2004-05, and 2008-09, and I’m as dialed-in as ever.

Yet from my perspective, it will make my work in the coming weeks to retain the current edge all that much harder.

Tonight’s agenda?

To review those three sequences to determine what went wrong.

And to believe that today was the worst day of my trading career.

Comments (10)

Now that I have a few minutes outside the Tank to gather my thoughts, here are some weekend perspectives.

9/11 Anniversary - Today is of course a day to put life in proper perspective.  May we never forget the events from nine years ago, and may we use the scars to seek to improve life as long as we have breath.

Week 1 Training Perspectives - It’s been another pleasure and honor to work alongside a new team of 15 traders. 

In terms of demographics, the average age of the current group is 42 – down slightly from previous groups which had averaged in the upper 40s – and trading experience ranges from 1 to 20 years with an average of 11.  California is the most heavily represented state, and we have participants from Australia, Canada, and the U.S.

This month’s effort has of course been enhanced by the addition of world class top trader coach Robin Dayne, who is working alongside the team as a participating trader while providing key psychological coaching insights each day.  Her involvement has further solidified my respect for her as a coach, trader, and person who has also done a great deal on the charity side.

Primary emphasis of the effort remains on having participants identify, recognize, and trade (or SOOT) the particular market “current” in play at all times, with emphasis on identifying those critical wholesale market inefficiencies and PJO “outliers” to carve out profit opportunity, using my own actual trading as live examples.

And while we’re only a quarter of way through the month-long effort, it’s no surprise that many of the early participant take-aways mirror that which we discussed in last year’s Keys to the Castle post, which remains among the most accessed page of the blog.

One rather interesting common challenge shared by some of the incoming participants was that they’d been trying to trade various “methods” or “systems” in the past which only work in certain market environments (can you say “Turtles”?)

Think of the “Jellie” concept as you may, the term remains an intentional and purposeful reminder that the job of a daily trader - like a good poker player – is to continually adapt to current conditions and feed off the environment in which we’re thrust on a daily basis.

Frankly, I remain amazed at all of the industry B.S. that emphasizes single methods that only work in specific environments. And while there’s of course solid instruction out there if you take the effort to seek it out and separate the wheat from the chaff, the fact that one participant had been “taught” by someone who hadn’t traded for months because market conditions had changed and his method stopped working, simply made me shudder.

Like life, I suppose we have two fundamental choices in this business: (1) work our tail off to constantly adapt to conditions and live life abundantly or (2) let ignorance, ego, laziness, stubbornness, and/or stupidity allow us to remain inflexible, resulting in trading paupers who barely get by – if at all.

And while it seems like a pretty easy choice to me, it amazes me how many intentionally choose #2 because it’s far less work, as evidenced by their barking at the market or at successful traders at cocktail parties or on various internet threads – the latter of which can be described as trading’s version of purgatory … but I digress.

And while our efforts will never be perfect, our mission remains clear: To further develop self-sufficient traders by providing the technical and mental tools to help recognize and effectively trade any market.

25% ADA Donation – A reminder for those unable to participate in the September training because of a group size that I purposely limit or personal choice at your end that the series of eight videos (16 hours) chronicling the formal evening training and weekly recap sessions of the 2009 beta team remain available.  These also reflect the prerequisite material for the current team.

Over the remaining three weeks of the current effort, I’ll be increasing the ongoing donation to 25% of all proceeds to the American Diabetes Association.  If you’d rather make a straight donation, you can of course always simply donate directly to the ADA or sponsor a bike rider such as friend Steve Berube in the upcoming JDRF Ride to Cure Diabetes in Death Valley, CA.

Mailbag – I’ve received a great deal over the past week, much of it in response to Monday’s High Stakes Trading post.

My thought of course was to continue to stimulate ways to increase the transparency of a business that continues to operate behind curtains and in shadows. 

And while I agree it might make for rather boring TV, I remain emphatic in responding to those who suggest that magicians shouldn’t give away their secrets, or who use poker as an example where sharing insights will change market dynamics and reduce personal opportunity.

For as I stated in one of my responses to Monday’s post, someone has to teach the magicians, and poker players who can’t adapt to evolving conditions simply aren’t true poker players.

As Art Cashin has often said, “Stay nimble”.

Those who don’t will end up in another type of trader purgatory … the ingredients of Turtle Soup.

Have a peaceful weekend.

Comments (1)
Jellies and Jellies to Be,
 
As a special to all traders who have been through either Don’s live Jellie training or have viewed the 16-Hour Jellie study series, I would like to pass the following on as a gift.  
 
While Don and I both are not big on marketing, I wanted to let all of Don’s “Jellies” know of a special discount for those who need help in managing trading emotions. As you know, even the best strategies fall short if emotions get in the way, and Don and I both also have a common and continuing mission to help traders succeed.
 
During the summertime, I always offer an additional coaching session to the origial 5-pack because summer is slow, there are many vacations and it’s a good time to work on the mind (called a 6-pack) .
 
I would like to offer to Jellies two things:
 
1) Visit the www.robindayne.com and view the FREE presentation (on the left side – bottom).  There is also lots of ”free stuff” to help with emotions. 
 
2) Would like to offer 2 extra sessions (or 7-pack) ONLY for Don’s past (or upcoming) Jellie traders, as a gift and to assist you … a $500 savings.
 
Again, this is a sincere offer ONLY if you have participated in either the live or video version of Don’s Jellie training efforts.  And yes, it will also be available for new video participants signing up over the next few days.  To receive the offer, simply contact me and I’ll verify with Don that you are eligible.
 
In the meantime I look forward to seeing the new team at the Jellie Training in September, and great trading!
 
Sincerely,
 
Robin Dayne
“The Trader’s Coach” 
Categories : Trader Training
Comments (1)
Jul
18

The Weekend Trader – Continuing the Mission

Posted by: Don Miller | Comments Comments Off

Today’s video follows up on last week’s Tank transcript posts, as well as Wednesday’s announcement of Robin Dayne’s involvement with the September Jellie training and personal expansion to an investment advisory role.

All of these efforts reflect the continuing spirit of further enhancing our mission to strengthen both traders and performance.

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