Mar
17

Episode #4: Chasing the Tail

By Don Miller

Today’s episode emphasizes the importance of the “Jellie” trader concept, which is to (1) identify the expected rhythm of the moment, and (2) adapt to it.

 After all, jellyfish have to eat off the environment in which they’re thrust, lest they die.  Here’s more on why we preferred the more flexible ”jellie” species to name our effort vs. the fixed “turtles” of years past.

Today’s “warm up” sequence reflects an early wholesale trade which took into consideration the expected early range and prior day supports, as well as the previous night’s and pre-U.S. opening Globex “tail” tendency.

A reminder that this isn’t mean to “teach” guys and gals … comments are welcome, but please no “Why do you trade this way?” emails.  If you want serious – no B.S. education on how and why I do what I do, that’s what the webinars and live efforts are for!Also, another reminder that high-quality TAD Caps and Polo shirts are availble with 100% of after-cost proceeds going to charity.

Technical Note: You may have to select the “Watch on YouTube” button in the lower right to view the full-screen version.

Categories : Low-Stakes Trading

Comments

  1. Mark says:

    Great trading Don. Love the transparency and love watching a true pro work his game.

  2. Market Monkey says:

    What I find fascinating is the view of the marketplace- Bringing your bid/offer “to the market” or placing them above/below. I think so many traders get lost in the idea of patterns for patterns sake, whether they “work” or not etc, but forget that, essentially, we’re trying to get more than what we paid for a bunch of stuff…a more organic approach (such as this) would do many of us a lot of good.

  3. TK says:

    Thanks Don, some further ideas that I would love to see in future episodes

    - getting stopped out in size when wrong
    - shift in thinking about market bias -> like going from short sequences to long or vica versa

    Fast forwarding in time periods is great by the way, you could experiment with further time compression by accelerating the market footage by 30-50%.

    • Don Miller says:

      Thanks. The educational webinars provide much more in-depth stuff on that. On the reversing topic, I rarely do that immediately … it’s more a “let the new market data” prove the new bias and decide whether a reversal is appropriate.

      • TK says:

        I got the webinars and understand your point. To rephrase in a different way, would love to see footage that includes both short and long sequences with a fast forward in between or how you would go through the 4 phases of changing and accepting beliefes about market behaviour as per one of your slides in the materials (despite the fact that you probably hardly spend any time in phase 1 and just smalls in 2).

        I also understand the technical limitations since you cannot “plan” this in advance and also that this is not for education, but a poker analogy that springs to my mind is when Brunson folded a pair of Kings before the flop because he correctly sensed that someone else had aces at a tournament game. For me, thats fascinating.

        • Don Miller says:

          Actually, the 3rd episode does a bit of that as we recognized the market weakness as we were probing for longs, before we scratched to reassess the new rhythm which included some reversals.

  4. Trigeek says:

    The TAD episodes are a terrific compliment to the Jellie Webinars. What is most helpful is that that concepts you teach in the webinars are congrous with the ‘live’ trading sequences demonstrated in the TAD episodes. I have viewed 5 of the webinars and already feel I’ve gotten my ROI back twofold.

    Well done Don. And thank you.

  5. Bob says:

    Hi Don,

    Are the TAD episodes traded on a simulator?

    • Don Miller says:

      Say what?????????????

      Ummmm … no, it’s NOT monopoly money.

      In all my years, never has been & never will be. As my broker can attest, the millions, every drop of blood ever shed, and everything ever written in the blog are REAL.

      Have we forgotten the REASON for this ten-year public trek?

  6. challupa says:

    its always the little things i enjoy while watching -thanks again

  7. Bob says:

    Don,

    If your performance can’t be audited or verify how can you publicly state “Performance of his private fund from 2004-10 ranks among the industry’s best at over +800%.” That is like investing in a public company or your education materials without any audited financial statements. My argument is similar to yours in having transparency. Anyone claiming to be trading educators, should have audited transparent qualifications. This is my idea of what the industry really needs to be more transparent.

    bob

    • Don Miller says:

      We’ve of course been down this road many times, and the source email for this poster doesn’t appear valid, but I WILL do the courtesy of responding to any newcomers this one time.

      As I’ve stated throughout the last decade, my statements and records have indeed been audited and reviewed by publishers and brokers, and my broker (MF Global who along with the CME has sponsored me at industry events and who has access to all the records) will always remain a reference for both performance and general integrity related issues. To my knowledge, I remain among the few who have published detailed trading statistics over a full year period, as well as one who has publicly discussed his draws INCLUDING the flash crash. (If you need further evidence, support, etc. or my feelings on personal integrity, please re-read all 800 posts of the initial blog.)

      Additionally, as 100 Jellie traders will tell you who have traded live alongside me every hour for 32 weeks over the last few years, one can’t fake something like that for 5 minutes never mind 1,280 hours.

      Now let’s get back to more important and legitimate efforts and jump start our charity efforts!

  8. Pete says:

    The TAD videos are the best thing that has ever happened to my trading. I finally understand what the term “The art of trading” means. Over the last four years of my es journey I’ve traveled a bunch of dead ends that lead to frustration and disappointment which caused a cynical type of attitude to arise within me. This was an issue because open eyes and an open mind are essential to learning and improving.
    My market analysis isn’t an area where I struggle. In my opinion I’ll match my market analysis with anyone. With that said I just couldn’t understand why my equity curve wasn’t better. As most traders know trading is always on your mind. I think about what separates the long term traders from the short timers that just donate money. I watched the TAD videos and it put some seeds in my mind to ponder. So I decided to watch them a few more times and open my mind. It clicked. Some of the worlds bests analysts aren’t necessarily even break even traders. The art of trading now makes sense. Thank you Don I’m now in the game.

  9. tim says:

    Great trading and thanks for posting them. The one trade I would like to see is how you would react to a price drop twice as much as you expected, lets say you have a bid at 2 points lower and it drops 4-5 points in a flash and does not recover right away. (not as bad as the flash crash).
    Tim

  10. John says:

    Hey Don, From these videos, now I know how you trade. Saw some of your blog over the past couple of years or so, but really never could understand your terminology or trading style. It’s interesting to see a completely different method of trading, than what I learned, that is also profitable.

    It’s rare to see actual trading, and exceptionally rare to see it edited and produced and narrated, good job. – J

  11. Sebastian says:

    Hi Don, love the TAD episodes!!!

    Is your stresslevel the same (as in the vids) when triggering the gun?
    It seems like you are very relaxed in narrating.

  12. santojobAUT says:

    Thanks Don to let us watch how u trade.

    You have now a one more fan from Spain. Gracias

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